Could the US Followed by the Rest of the World Impose Trade and Economic Sanctions on the UK if the Good Friday Agreement is Breeched or Ignored?

While they could impose such sanctions, the likelihood of it happening is low. The reason for this is that the argument for singling out the UK as the sole party in breach of the Good Friday Agreement (GFA) is not clear. Additionally, the idea of imposing sanctions on both sides, given their mutual obligations under the GFA, is not practical.

Arguments Against Sole Responsibility

For instance, if both the UK and the Republic of Ireland (RoI) establish customs posts, on or off the border, how can one side be declared in breach while the other remains unscathed? The notion that the GFA makes it impossible for either party to leave the EU or the customs union is clearly flawed.

Taking responsibility for the failure of trade talks fully on the UK is also not a tenable position. While the UK has certainly played a role, attributing 100% of the blame is unjust. If the EU were to impose trade sanctions on the UK, this would itself be a violation of the GFA, which is an important international agreement.

US's Historical Role

The United States should remember its historical support of Noraid, an organization it later acknowledged promoted the purchase and use of arms and explosives. A more thoughtful approach would be beneficial to maintain goodwill.

Moreover, neither the UK nor the RoI want a hard border, which is an EU construct. The EU’s interest in maintaining this border goes beyond Ireland’s welfare. The British government has consistently expressed its preference for a soft border, and Ireland, while not fully sovereign, is still seeking ways to achieve this.

Regional Concerns and Negotiations

Both the UK and Ireland are keen on avoiding border issues through bilateral agreements. Unfortunately, Ireland’s lack of full sovereignty limits its ability to negotiate independently. This means that any agreement must align with the broader EU objectives, which often include maintaining the integrity of the customs union.

Proactively discussing and finding a mutually beneficial solution between the UK and the EU, as well as involving Ireland in these discussions, could be more constructive than imposing sanctions. The focus should be on creating a framework that respects both the GFA and the broader economic interests of all parties involved, particularly the interests of the Irish people and the interests of the Irish economy.