UK’s Brexit Continues: Extending the Process and Implications
It has been almost four years since the UK officially exited the European Union (EU) on January 31, 2020. Despite the initial exit, the situation remains fluid, with potential extensions and negotiations ongoing. This article delves into the likelihood of further extensions, the upcoming parliamentary session, and the implications for future negotiations and the political landscape.
Parliamentary Session and Legislative Deadlines
The new session of Parliament is set to commence on Monday, January 6, 2020. Subsequent debates, votes on the Queen’s Speech, and the introduction of necessary legislation for Brexit will follow. However, due to the limited time available, the government will face significant challenges in ensuring the withdrawal agreement is passed.
The withdrawal agreement bill must clear all parliamentary hurdles, and this process will be hastened but not expedited. Even with the European Parliament's involvement, there may still be delays, perhaps leading to a new Brexit date of Saturday, February 29, 2020.
Administrative and Legislative Tasks
The new session of Parliament is designed to push through the necessary legislation quickly. However, there are still numerous administrative and legislative tasks that must be completed, including final approvals at both the UK and European levels.
These upcoming periods of debate and administrative work are critical, as they will determine whether the withdrawal agreement can be operationalized promptly. If delays continue, the timeline for other aspects of Brexit, such as trade negotiations, will also be affected.
Future Trading Discussions and Negotiations
Given the timeline, it is likely that major trading discussions, including those regarding fisheries, will not begin until April, May, and June 2020. This delay is due to the linkage between fish and trade as stated in the Political Declaration of October 2019, which mirrors the terms set out in the November 2018 declaration. Thus, negotiations on these issues will not proceed until the UK and EU agree on fishing rights.
By the end of June 2020, Boris Johnson, the UK Prime Minister, will face a critical decision. If the no-deal scenario is to be avoided, he will need to decide whether to delay the resolution until after December 31, 2020. This deadline could extend further if negotiations with the EU are prolonged.
Political and Referendum Hopes
The political landscape in the UK remains complex. The mood of the electorate is shifting towards the possibility of another referendum, given the limited success of the 'Leave' campaign. The current situation, with a potential no-deal outcome, is driving this desire for further consultation. The upcoming parliamentary session may provide an opportunity to gauge public sentiment and introduce new legislative proposals.
Prime Minister Johnson's call for the election might be seen as an effort to shape public opinion and secure a mandate for his approach to Brexit. The aim is to place the issue in the hands of the people through a new referendum, allowing them to reconsider the terms of the UK's exit from the EU. This could potentially lead to a different outcome, different from the initial 'Leave' vote in 2016.
In summary, the UK's Brexit situation remains highly uncertain. Despite the initial exit, the process is far from over, with several critical decisions and negotiations ahead. The upcoming parliamentary session, administrative tasks, and potential referendums will be crucial in determining the UK's future relationship with the EU.